Comments from US and China trade talks will also be a key driver this week. (AI image)

Gold price prediction: Gold prices are likely to be influenced by global economic developments this week, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Here is his outlook for gold prices in the coming days:Gold hovered near the key $4,000 mark through last week, weighed by a firm US dollar and diminishing expectations of further Fed rate cuts after Chair Powell struck a cautious tone despite a second 25 bps reduction this year.Market odds for another cut in December eased from around 90% to 70%, pressuring bullion, while the dollar index held firm near 100 and USDINR inched toward 89. The record-long US government shutdown continued to disrupt key data releases, leaving investors reliant on private surveys that painted a weaker picture — both ISM manufacturing and services PMIs slipped below 50, signaling contraction.Private payrolls surprised to the upside, rising 42,000, fueling uncertainty over the Fed’s next steps. Trade sentiment improved modestly as Presidents Trump and Xi agreed on tariff reductions tied to fentanyl curbs and renewed commodity trade, trimming safe-haven demand.In China, the removal of VAT offsets for gold retailers and cuts in exemptions from 13% to 6% led major banks to freeze new retail accounts, threatening to cool demand in the world’s top gold market. Meanwhile, Fed’s liquidity support of $29.4B underscored ongoing funding stress.The US also added uranium, copper, and silver to its critical minerals list, providing structural support for precious and industrial metals. Despite softer physical demand in India and China, gold and silver gained modestly on global growth concerns, weak US sentiment, and expectations of further policy easing amid the prolonged shutdown and cooling labor market.The US Senate is now all set to advance the bill aiming at reopening the federal government and ending the 40 day shutdown that sidelined federal workers and delayed food and air travels as well. This bill would fund the government through January 2026. After the bill’s advancement, economic data and surveys from the last 40 days will be released giving the market some clarity on the health of the economy. Similarly, comments from US and China trade talks will also be a key driver this week.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)