A surprisingly competitive special election in deep-red Tennessee revealed one of the most important early signals about the 2026 midterms: both parties believe affordability will decide the political battlefield, and Democrats are beginning to claw back voters they lost last year.Republican Matt Van Epps won the special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District on Tuesday, defeating Democratic state lawmaker Aftyn Behn by nine points. On paper, the race should not have been close. US President Donald Trump carried the district with about 60 percent of the vote in 2024, and former Representative Mark Green won it by similar margins before resigning in July.Yet millions of dollars in late spending and a clear double-digit swing towards the Democrats transformed what should have been a routine Republican hold into a nationally watched contest. Democratic gains in urban and suburban pockets of Nashville were similar to the party’s overperformances in dozens of special elections this year.Van Epps celebrated the result as a win powered by the MAGA chief’s continued influence. “Running from Trump is how you lose. Running with Trump is how you win,” he said, thanking the president for “unwavering support” and promising to be “all-in with him” in Congress, according to NPR. Trump said the same in a Truth Social message, telling GOP supporters it was “another great night for the Republican Party.”Both parties focussed on ads centred heavily on cost-of-living issues. Van Epps promised to lower prices, expand jobs and cut health-care costs. Behn vowed to “shake up Washington” by making health care affordable and easing the burden on workers and small businesses. Even so, Trump dismissed affordability altogether during a tele-rally, claiming Democrats used the topic as “a con job.”Republicans will now hold a 220-213 House majority until Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene resigns in early January.