Sharad Pawar, Sunetra Pawar & Supriya Sule

NEW DELHI: The sudden death of Maharashtra deputy chief minister and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Ajit Pawar in a plane crash has triggered fresh churn in the state’s politics, reopening talks of a reunification of the two NCP factions led by the Pawar’s.The rumoured merger of the two NCP factions led by Ajit Pawar and his uncle Sharad Pawar is “very much on course”, with talks having reached an “advanced stage” even before the deputy chief minister’s death in Wednesday’s plane crash, sources aware of the talks told news agency PTI.

“The process of bringing the family and the party back together was already in motion. Ajit dada himself had held several rounds of discussions with senior leaders to bridge the gap,” the sources said.The tragedy, they say, may now accelerate the process rather than stall it.

NCP factions eyeing February merger?

Negotiators from both the ruling NCP and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP) confirmed that discussions were well underway, with a tentative announcement earlier planned for February 8, shortly after the Zilla Parishad and Panchayat Samiti elections, the agency said.The two factions had already “tested the waters” by jointly contesting the Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad civic polls under the NCP’s clock symbol, which was a clear sign of a thaw after the dramatic 2023 split.

Will Ajit Pawar’s death speed up reunification?

Sources said Ajit Pawar had meticulously planned the reunification of the two NCP factions and viewed the merger as part of a long-term strategy, keeping the 2029 elections and the party’s future relevance in mind. He was confident the reunion would take place with the consent of his uncle, Sharad Pawar.Reunification was also Ajit Pawar’s last wish, according to Kiran Gujar, a member of Vidya Pratishthan and a close associate of the Pawar family for over four decades.Speaking to reporters after the immersion of Ajit Pawar’s ashes, Gujar said, “Today, the ashes of Ajit Pawar were immersed at Sangam here. It was ‘Dada’s’ last wish that this (merger of two factions of NCP) should happen. All should be united. Talks about this were happening throughout the family. In my last phone call with him, he had asked me for some election-related papers.”“He was one hundred per cent keen on merging both the factions. He had told me five days ago that the entire process was complete and the merger was imminent in the next few days,” Gujar told PTI.Asked whether Ajit Pawar had discussed the issue with Sharad Pawar, Gujar said that “positive talks were underway with Pawar saheb, Supriya Tai (Supriya Sule) and other leaders”, and there were indications that the senior Pawar would endorse the move.“Many positive things were on the cards, but this tragedy struck and took Ajit ‘Dada’ away from us. Now, after his death, it has become even more imperative that both factions come together and work for the betterment of Baramati and the state,” he said.Just days before the fatal plane crash, Ajit Pawar had also met NCP (SP) leader Jayant Patil to finalise organisational unity and power-sharing arrangements. Even as merger talks gathered momentum, a section of party workers in the NCP has begun debating Ajit Pawar’s successor.Ajit Pawar himself had earlier told TOI that reuniting the party was his immediate political goal, with the blessings of Sharad Pawar.The moment carries a stark irony. Ajit Pawar was the architect of the 2023 split that fractured the NCP and aligned a majority of its legislators with the BJP–Shiv Sena-led Mahayuti government, leaving Sharad Pawar’s faction in opposition.Yet, despite the split, Ajit Pawar retained the party’s official identity, with the Election Commission recognising his group as the “real”NCP and awarding it the “watch” symbol.

Maharashtra’s power dynamics

Ajit Pawar’s NCP currently holds 40 MLAs, while the Sharad Pawar faction has 10. A merged party would command over 50 MLAs, potentially altering equations within the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).However, even if a unified NCP were to exit the ruling alliance, the Devendra Fadnavis government would remain secure, with the Mahayuti holding 235 MLAs in the 288-member Assembly.Political analysts say the bigger impact could be in western Maharashtra, the NCP’s traditional “sugar belt” — where the BJP has made recent inroads.

The 4 frontrunners: Who will fill the vacuum?

While the NCP (SP) believes Sharad Pawar will naturally return to a “central role” in guiding a unified party, the ruling NCP is keen on preserving the Pawar family’s political legacy.Ajit Pawar’s death has left the ruling NCP without a clear leader. With senior leader Chhagan Bhujbal unwell, the party now faces uncertainty over leadership as well as key cabinet portfolios, including finance and excise, which were handled by Ajit Pawar.Apart from Sharad Pawar, sources said three names have emerged as frontrunners to lead a merged NCP — Sunetra Pawar, Supriya Sule and senior leader Praful Patel.Sources said Ajit Pawar’s wife and Rajya Sabha MP Sunetra Pawar is being considered for the post of deputy chief minister.There is a growing chorus within the ruling NCP in favour of appointing Sunetra Pawar as party president as well as leader of the legislative party.However, if that option does not materialise due to any reasons then Praful Patel is being seen as the next likely choice to take charge, sources added.For now, the February 7 local body polls will act as a “coordinated tribute” to the late leader, with both NCP factions contesting together under the clock symbol, seen as a prelude to a possible reunification after the results are declared on February 9.Meanwhile, reports suggesting the induction of Ajit Pawar’s wife into the cabinet have drawn sharp criticism from the opposition. Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut termed the discussion “inhuman”.“The woman has just lost her husband; her eyes are still filled with tears. To talk about leadership and cabinet positions at such a time shows zero humanity,” Raut said.