A peculiar contest has emerged in Darbhanga’s Gaura Bauram constituency. Amid uncertainty and confusion during seat-sharing within the Mahagathbandhan, RJD had initially allotted the ticket to Afzal Ali Khan. Later, the seat was handed over to Mukesh Sahni’s VIP. Sahni then fielded his younger brother Santosh Sahni from here but Afzal Ali refused to withdraw. Treating this as indiscipline, RJD yesterday expelled Afzal Ali for six years with immediate effect.This sets up a potential split in the Muslim vote between Afzal Ali and Santosh Sahni, this could end up benefiting the BJP.BJP has fielded former IRS officer Sujeet Kumar Singh. His wife Swarna Singh had won from here in the previous election on VIP’s ticket, but later joined BJP. The seat has a sizeable Mallah population, the reason Mukesh Sahni had originally demanded it for himself but eventually nominated his younger brother.RJD insists that Santosh Sahni is the authorised Mahagathbandhan candidate. But on paper, Afzal Ali continues to remain the nominated nominee — something that could complicate Santosh’s prospects. Afzal Ali had lost by barely 7,000 votes the last time when he contested on RJD’s ticket.

Total electorate: 2.65 lakhEstimated blocs: Muslim 70k, Yadav 28k, Mallah 26k, Brahmin 33k, Vaishya 20k, Paswan 15k, other SC 25k.BJP’s Sujeet Kumar Singh is from the Rajput community, which is not numerically dominant here. However, he believes he can ride on the BJP’s core vote base plus Mahagathbandhan’s internal rebellion.Speaking to us, he claimed that barring Muslims, every caste group is voting for me. He also claimed a large chunk of Yadavs are backing him. Singh resigned from the IRS only a week before receiving the BJP ticket and believes his “education and clean image” will work as an added advantage.

VIP spokesperson Dev Jyoti said within 24 hours of Afzal Ali’s expulsion, the “wind has swung” in VIP’s favour. He expressed confidence that Muslim voters, at the end of the day, will back the candidate best placed to defeat the BJP. He also said the backing of Lalu Prasad Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav is firmly with VIP here.However, some minority voters argue that since RJD had already issued the nomination earlier, Mukesh Sahni shouldn’t have disturbed the seat.