Canada unveiled its new Immigration Levels Plan for 2026–2028 early Wednesday morning (India time), confirming that the country will hold steady the intake of permanent residents and admit 3.80 lakh annually over the next three years. However, it has sharply curbed the number of temporary residents—especially international students. To illustrate, the immigration levels plan unveiled last year (2025-2027) had projected an intake of 3.05 lakh students for 2026; this is now down to 1.55 lakh and will marginally decline over the next two years.Last year, the three-year levels plan (2025-2027) has for the first time also incorporated target levels for temporary workers (which includes international students and temporary workers); this practice continues. The plan, released as part of Budget 2025, reflects what officials call a ‘balanced approach’ to immigration, stabilising permanent resident levels while moderating temporary inflows.

“We will balance the number of new arrivals with the planned departure of international students and temporary workers as their status expires in 2025 and 2026. We have committed to reduce temporary resident volumes through departures, program limits, and lower immigration levels to less than 5% of the population by the end of 2027,” said Lena Metlege Diab, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship (IRCC).“As we bring our temporary resident population to sustainable levels, we will continue to work with provinces and territories to prioritise people seeking to study and work in fields that will support Canada’s workforce needs in communities across the country including in rural areas,“ she added.In this context, Lisa Brunner, Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant (RCIC) and post-doctoral research fellow at Centre for Migration Studies, pointed out, “They are also counting on the proposed Bill C-12, also known as ‘Strengthening Canada’s Immigration System and Borders Act,’ being passed into law so they can more forcefully encourage the ‘self-deportation’ of temporary residents with no realistic permanent residency options. Missing from the government’s Levels Plan is the estimated number of undocumented people living in Canada and whether the government expects that number to increase.”

Temporary Residents (Students): Deepest cuts:

International students face the sharpest reductions in the plan, with admissions capped at 1.55 lakh in 2026 and 1.50 lakh in 2027, almost halving the levels announced last year. Last year’s projection was an intake of 3.05 lakh students in both 2026 and 2027.As the number of international students had peaked to 10 lakh by December 2023, in the following month, an intake cap on study permit applications was introduced – for 2024 the cap was expected to result in 2.60 lakh approved study permits, a decline of 35% from the previous year. In this backdrop, while declining intakes were expected, the sharp cut has taken many by surprise.Matthew McDonald, RCIC, noted, “The big surprise is a 50% cut to international students, from the earlier projection of 3.05 lakh to 1.50 lakh in 2026. At first glance, the reduction may not seem significant, because we do not anticipate more than 1.50 lakh study permit approvals in 2025. However, the lower target will also reduce the number of admission offers that colleges and universities can make, putting further pressure on Canada’s international education sector.”Ken Nickel-Lane, RCIC, said: “In this condensed levels plan what immediately jumps out is that international students are hit the hardest within the plan to reduce temporary residents in Canada, with study permits cut by 49.3% across 2026–2028. Continuing the narrative that the previous governments had left the door open to students too wide for too long, and this now requires a severe correction.”Manish Kapoor, RCIC, added that this does not bring good news for Indian students aspiring to study in Canada. “The halving of the study-permit targets means it is going to be much harder to get a study permit—especially for Indian applicants, who are already facing a refusal rate of over 50%. If the application volumes remain high, I anticipate refusal rates could skyrocket to as high as 80%.”Brunner said: “The government is focused on two key goals: reducing the total number of temporary residents to less than five per cent of Canada’s population by the end of 2027, and keeping permanent resident arrivals at less than one per cent of the population beyond 2027.”

Canada’s population is around 415 lakh. “The five per cent temporary resident goal is particularly challenging to achieve due to two factors: (1) how structurally dependent Canada has become on temporary workers and international students, and (2) difficulties making reductions in many categories of temporary residents who are in Canada with various humanitarian statuses. It appears the government feels further reductions to international students is the ‘least bad’ option at their disposal.The Trusted Institutions Framework

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announced in mid 2023, aims to tighten quality control in international education. Institutions with strong student-support systems, transparent finances, and compliance records will be recognised as ‘trusted’, receiving streamlined and speedy visa processing. “Indian students should focus on trusted institutions and robust financial documentation to maintain strong profiles, especially for the next step towards permanent residence,” said Naumaan Hameed, lawyer and immigration specialist at Greenberg Hameed PC.Talha Mohani, RCIC, expressed similar sentiments, “I have seen many high school graduates from India face significant challenges in obtaining permanent legal status after completing college in Canada. For this reason, it is strongly recommended that students first complete their bachelors’ degrees and gain relevant work experience before applying.”

Temporary Foreign Workers: Fewer permits, more selectivity:

The target for temporary foreign workers (TFWs) is set at 2.30 lakh for 2026, to be sustained at 2.20 lakh in each of the next two years. The plan unveiled last year had projected TFWs at 2.10 lakh for 2026 and 2.37 lakh for 2027.Manish Kapoor, RCIC, said, “The sharp decline in work permit targets means fewer opportunities for temporary foreign workers, spousal work permit holders, and intra-company transferees, with higher refusal rates expected across these categories.On a more positive note, the new immigration levels plan brings good news for certain work permit holders in Canada. There will be a new permanent residency pathway for 33,000 workers over the next two years, likely targeting high-demand sectors such as healthcare, construction, and Francophone.”The immigration levels plan for 2026-2028, unlike in the past, has not broken down the figures of temporary foreign workers into ‘Temporary Foreign Workers Program’ and ‘International Mobility Program (IMP)’ which does not require a labour market impact assessment to be done. The IMP also covers intra-company transfers and post-graduation work permits.Nickel-Lane points out that, “Given the negative pressure we are seeing on the labour market impact assessment (LMIA) related programs – which are more susceptible to fraud and abuse, we would expect more favour to be given to the IMP streams. LMIA stream is also a more easily modified stream which could simply be shut off for industries and regions particularly impacted by US tariffs.”Kubeir Kamal, RCIC, is optimistic about an announcement to introduce an accelerated pathway for skilled H-1B workers, the details of which are yet to be announced. “This ends a strong, proactive message to the global talent pool: Canada is committed to attracting the best innovators and technology leaders to boost our competitiveness and long-term productivity,” he states.