China’s top economic agency has issued a rare warning about potential bubbles in its rapidly growing humanoid robotics industry. Over 150 companies are producing similar robots, raising concerns about genuine research and development. This mirrors past investment frenzies. China aims to produce over 10,000 humanoid robots this year, more than half globally. Beijing plans to accelerate market mechanisms and promote consolidation to ensure fair competition and real-world applications.

China’s top economic planning agency has issued a rare warning about bubble risks in the country’s rapidly expanding humanoid robotics sector—the same industry that Tesla CEO Elon Musk previously expressed concern about China potentially dominating.The National Development and Reform Commission of China cautioned about the proliferation of remarkably similar robots from more than 150 companies flooding the market, according to Bloomberg. Agency spokeswoman Li Chao told reporters the country must prevent this deluge from overwhelming the sector and crowding out genuine research and development efforts.The warning reflects Beijing’s growing unease over excessive investment pouring into humanoid robotics, which officials have designated as one of six key economic growth drivers through 2030. This pattern echoes previous investment frenzies in sectors ranging from bike-sharing to semiconductors that ended in industry shakeouts eliminating smaller players.

Musk’s prediction about Chinese dominance may be coming true

The Tesla billionaire warned during an April conference call that while he believes his Optimus robots lead in performance, China might ultimately dominate the field. “I’m a little concerned that on the leaderboard, ranks 2 through 10 will be Chinese companies,” Musk said, as reported by Bloomberg.His concerns appear well-founded. China is on track to produce more than 10,000 humanoid robots this year—representing over half of global production, according to research from Chinese think tank Leaderobot. The country announced earlier this year it would invest 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) in robotics and high technology over the next two decades, dwarfing investments from the US or Europe.Investment in the sector exploded after Unitree’s dancing robots captivated audiences during this year’s Spring Festival Gala. Since then, Chinese humanoid robots have dominated social media performing tasks from running marathons to kickboxing and making coffee.

China’s robot revolution accelerates despite growing pains

The market’s potential remains massive. Citigroup projects the humanoid robotics market and related services could reach $7 trillion by 2050, with 648 million human-like robots potentially populating the world.Chinese startups including EngineAI, Unitree, AgiBot and Galbot are harnessing artificial intelligence to help robots learn new tasks independently. The Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index has surged nearly 30% this year as investor enthusiasm builds.Beijing plans to accelerate development of mechanisms for market entry and exit while promoting consolidation of technology and industrial resources across the sector to support fair competition and real-world applications.