Venture capitalist and billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya has now issued a strict warning to private companies considering going public, urging them to move quickly or risk being shut out of capital markets. According to a report by Benzinga, speaking on the All-In podcast, Palihapitiya emphasised that the hrinking investor appetite, geopolitical risks, and uncertainty around artificial general intelligence (AGI) valuations could make late entrants to the IPO cycle vulnerable.

Chamath Palihapitiya talked about the IPO frenzy and risks ahead

Palihapitiya went ahead and compared the upcoming wave of IPOs including SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic to a Thanksgiving feast, where early diners get the best portions and those arriving late may find the little left. “The risk increases when you are at the tail end because the risk is that the diners will run out of space… you just can’t absorb incrementally trillions of dollars of new demand,” he said. He further cautioned that then companies waiting too long could face diminished returns as investors attention and capital are consumed by the first movers. Also, tactical risks, such as geopolitical tensions in Iran and the disruptive influence of AI, could further complicate the IPO landscape.

Palihapitiya believes that SpaceX will lead the IPO wave

Palihapitiya expects SpaceX to lead the IPO wave and perform strongly, setting the tone for others. The company is reportedly targeting a record $75 billion raise and a valuation of over $2 trillion, which would make it the largest stock market listing in history. “Get the heck out and get public and get your money and fortify your balance sheet ASAP — the risk builds the further down the IPO chain you’re in,” he advised.

AGI Uncertainty Clouds Valuations

Beyond timing, Palihapitiya highlighted structural concerns tied to AGI. He argued that if AGI is real, the durability of most companies could be minimal, but if it isn’t, then the ability of firms to raise hundreds of billions of dollars should be questioned. “Both scenarios cannot be true at the same time,” he said.Investors, he noted, are already rotating toward “halo” businesses — high-asset, low-obsolescence companies — rather than chasing risky valuations at hundreds of times revenue.