{"id":34700,"date":"2025-10-30T11:02:47","date_gmt":"2025-10-30T11:02:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sochtimes.com\/2025\/10\/30\/sudan-in-danger-of-self-destructing-as-conflict-and-famine-reign\/"},"modified":"2025-10-30T11:02:47","modified_gmt":"2025-10-30T11:02:47","slug":"sudan-in-danger-of-self-destructing-as-conflict-and-famine-reign","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sochtimes.com\/hi\/2025\/10\/30\/sudan-in-danger-of-self-destructing-as-conflict-and-famine-reign\/","title":{"rendered":"Sudan in danger of self-destructing as conflict and famine reign"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Alex de Waal<\/span>Africa analyst<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"AFP\/GettyAFP\/Getty Images<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

More than half of Sudan’s 45 million people have been wrenched from their homes<\/figcaption><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
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Sudan’s war is in strategic stalemate. Each side stakes its hopes on a new offensive, a new delivery of weapons, a new political alliance, but neither can gain a decisive advantage.<\/p>\n

The losers are the Sudanese people. Every month there are more who are hungry, displaced, despairing.<\/p>\n

The Sudan armed forces triumphantly announced the recapture of central Khartoum in March.<\/p>\n

It broadcast pictures of its leader, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, walking through the ruins of the capital’s Republican Palace<\/a>, which had been controlled by the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), since the earliest days of the war in April 2023.<\/p>\n

The army deployed weapons newly acquired from Egypt, Turkey and other Middle Eastern countries including Qatar and Iran. But its offensive quickly stalled.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"Anadolu\/GettyAnadolu\/Getty Images<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Much of the centre of Khartoum has been left in ruins following the battle for the capital<\/figcaption><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
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The RSF, headed by Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti”, responded with a devastating drone attack on Port Sudan, which is both the interim capital of the military government and also the main entry point for humanitarian aid.<\/p>\n

These were long-range sophisticated drones, which the army accuses the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of supplying – a charge the UAE rejects, along with well-documented reports that it has been backing the RSF during the 27-month conflict.<\/p>\n

The RSF has also expanded operations to the south of Khartoum.<\/p>\n

Hemedti struck a deal with Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, the veteran rebel commander of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-North, which controls the Nuba Mountains near the border with South Sudan.<\/p>\n

Their forces combined may be able to make a push to the border with Ethiopia, hoping to open new supply routes.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the RSF has been besieging the capital of North Darfur, el-Fasher, which is defended by a coalition of Darfurian former rebels, known as the Joint Forces, allied with the army.<\/p>\n

Most of the fighters are ethnic Zaghawa, who have been in fierce conflict with the Arab groups that form the core of the RSF.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"ReutersReuters<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The UAE has denied repeated accusations that it is arming RSF fighters<\/figcaption><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
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Month after month of blockade, bombardment and ground attacks have created famine among the residents, with the people of the displaced camp of Zamzam worst-hit.<\/p>\n

The RSF and its allied Arab militias have a terrifying record of massacre, rape and ethnic cleansing. Human rights organisations have accused it of genocide against the Massalit people of West Darfur<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Zaghawa communities in el-Fasher fear that if the Joint Forces are defeated, they will suffer savage reprisals at the hands of the RSF.<\/p>\n

The pressure on el-Fasher is growing. Last week the RSF captured desert garrisons on the border with Libya held by the Joint Forces.<\/p>\n

The military has accused forces loyal to Libyan strongman Gen Khalifa Haftar, who controls the east of the country and is also a reported beneficiary of Emirati support, of joining in the attack.<\/p>\n

Sudan’s civilians, who six years ago managed the extraordinary feat of overthrowing the country’s long-time leader Omar al-Bashir through non-violent protests<\/a>, are in disarray.<\/p>\n

Different groupings are aligned with Burhan, with Hemedti, or trying to stake out a neutral position. They are all active on social media, polarised, acrimonious and fragmented.<\/p>\n

The neighbourhood committees that were the driving force of the civic revolution are clinging to life.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"ReutersReuters<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Community kitchens, organised through neighbourhood committees, have lost vital aid since President Trump took office in January<\/figcaption><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
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Most have kept their political heads down, focusing instead on essential humanitarian activities. Known as “Emergency Response Rooms”, aid workers recognise that they are the most efficient channel for life-saving assistance.<\/p>\n

But many lost their funding<\/a> when the administration of US President Donald Trump closed down USAID, and other donors have not stepped into the breach.<\/p>\n

The army and RSF both see any form of civic activism as a threat. <\/p>\n

They are cracking down, arresting, torturing and killing national aid workers and human rights activists.<\/p>\n

There is no credible peace process.<\/p>\n

The UN’s chief diplomat assigned to Sudan, former Algerian Prime Minister Ramtane Lamamra, formulated a peace plan that was premised on the assumption that the army would achieve a military victory.<\/p>\n

All that would be left to negotiate would be the disarmament of the RSF and the reconstruction of the country. That is totally unrealistic.<\/p>\n

Burhan has a big diplomatic advantage over Hemedti because the UN has recognised the military side as the government of Sudan, even when it did not control the national capital.<\/p>\n

Hemedti’s attempt to launch a parallel administration for the vast territories controlled by the RSF has gained little credibility.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"AFP\/GettyAFP\/Getty Images<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Euphoria followed the army’s recent victory in Khartoum, but no side appears to have the upper hand nationally<\/figcaption><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
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Foreign ministers at a conference in London in April<\/a>, hosted by British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, failed to agree a path to peace. The conference chairs had to settle for a statement that covered familiar ground.<\/p>\n

On this occasion, as before, progress was blocked because Saudi Arabia and the UAE could not agree.<\/p>\n

Diplomats acknowledge that Sudan’s war is an African problem that needs an Arab solution.<\/p>\n

The road to peace in Khartoum runs through Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Cairo.<\/p>\n

For Egypt, the big question is whether Burhan is able to distance himself from Sudan’s Islamists.<\/p>\n

Under Bashir, the Islamist movement was in power for 30 years, and established a formidable and well-funded organisation, that still exists.<\/p>\n

The Islamists mobilised combat brigades that were key to the army’s recent victory in Khartoum.<\/p>\n

Egypt’s President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi supports Burhan and wants him to sideline the Islamists, but knows that he cannot push the Sudanese general too far.<\/p>\n

This question takes on added salience with Israel’s attack on Iran and the Islamists’ fear that they are facing an irreversible defeat.<\/p>\n

The other big question is whether the UAE will step back from supporting Hemedti.<\/p>\n

After the RSF lost Khartoum, some hoped that Abu Dhabi might seek a compromise – but within weeks the RSF was deploying drones that appear to have come from the UAE.<\/p>\n

The UAE is also facing strategic challenges, as it is an outlier in the Arab world in its alignment with Israel.<\/p>\n

No-one wants to see Sudan divided. But the reality of the war points towards a de facto partition between bitterly opposed warring camps.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"AFP\/GettyAFP\/Getty Images<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The war has had a devastating effect on Sudan’s people – with no end in sight to the conflict<\/figcaption><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
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Meanwhile, the world’s largest and deepest humanitarian emergency worsens with no end in sight.<\/p>\n

More than half of Sudan’s 45 million people are displaced. Nearly a million are in famine.<\/p>\n

Both sides continue to restrict aid agencies’ access to the starving. The UN’s appeal for $4.2bn (\u00a33bn) for essential aid was only 13.3% funded in late May.<\/p>\n

Globally and among the Arab world’s powerbrokers, Sudan is no-one’s priority, an orphan in a region that is ablaze.<\/p>\n

It is a country where the multilateral organisations – the United Nations and the African Union – could still be relevant.<\/p>\n

They can remind all of their commitments to human rights and human life, and that it is in no-one’s interest to see Sudan’s catastrophe continue to unfold.<\/p>\n

The long-suffering Sudanese people surely deserve that quantum of mercy.<\/p>\n

Alex de Waal is the executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in the US.<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"GettyGetty Images\/BBC<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n


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